01
BTCUSD · PRICE ACTION
02
CAKRA AI VERDICT
— ANALYZING —
···
—/100
COMPOSITE
—%
CONFIDENCE
▸ 7-FACTOR BREAKDOWN
🔒 PRO
LAST ANALYSIS
—
03
ORDER BOOK · Binance Futures
SPREAD: --
04
LIQUIDATIONS · 24H
LONG WIPED
—
SHORT WIPED
—
Menyambung ke Binance…
05
CYCLE POSITION · HALVING IV
— / 1458
days post-halving
—
HALV
04/24
04/24
ATH ★
10/25
10/25
NOW
05/26
05/26
HALV V
~04/28
~04/28
Halving19 APR 24
Cycle ATH$126K
Peak gain+96%
Cycle III+541%
ATH-dist—
PhaseMARKDOWN
06
DERIVATIVES · BTCUSDT.P
FUNDING RATE 8H
—
NEXT FUNDING
—
OPEN INTEREST
—
OI 24H DELTA
—
L/S RATIO (RETAIL)
—
L/S RATIO (TOP)
—
BASIS · QUARTERLY
+2.84% ann.
DVOL · IMPLIED
52.3
07
MACRO STREAM · GLOBAL
M2.GLOBAL
YoY growth
+10.2%
▲ DECOUPLED
XAU.USD
Gold spot
$4,728
+0.83%
DXY
Dollar Index
106.42
-0.18%
BRENT
Crude oil
$126.40
+1.12%
US10Y
10Y Treasury
4.78%
+4 bps
US30Y
30Y Treasury
5.00%
+3 bps
CPI.MAR
YoY inflation
3.30%
ABOVE TGT
USD.IDR
Spot
17,300
+4.2% YTD
08
ON-CHAIN · Network
HASH RATE
—
DIFFICULTY
—
NEXT ADJUSTMENT
—
MEMPOOL SIZE
—
PENDING TX
—
FEE · MEDIUM
—
FEE · FAST
—
BLOCK HEIGHT
—
09
FEAR & GREED INDEX
—
— ANALYZING —
Yesterday
—
7D Ago
—
30D Ago
—
10
SPOT ETF FLOW
APRIL NET INFLOW
+$2.43B ▲
CUMULATIVE AUM
$102B
BLACKROCK IBIT
806,700 BTC
% OF SUPPLY
3.84%
FIDELITY FBTC
198,300 BTC
PUBLIC HOLDERS
172 cos · 1M+ BTC
12
NEWS WIRE · BTC-RELEVANT EVENTS
Memuat berita…
11BITCOIN HALVING CYCLES · 4 EPOCHS OVERLAY
Cycle I · 2012→2016
+9.434%
Cycle II · 2016→2020
+2.779%
Cycle III · 2020→2024
+706%
Cycle IV · 2024→2028 · NOW
+96%
Diminishing returns terlihat jelas — setiap siklus puncak gain berkurang ~70%. Cycle IV ATH (+96%) hanya 14% dari Cycle III (+706%). Implikasi: market matures, supply shock effect melemah, institutional demand jadi driver utama.
12HALVING V COUNTDOWN
— hari
menuju halving ke-5
—
Days
—
Hours
—
Min
—
Sec
Block ~883.247 / 1.050.000
Reward kini 3,125 BTC → Halving V: 1,5625 BTC
Estimasi ~April 2028
Reward kini 3,125 BTC → Halving V: 1,5625 BTC
Estimasi ~April 2028
13STOCK-TO-FLOW MODEL
S2F Ratio
120,8
years to mine
Model Predicted
$153K
fair value
Actual vs Model
−50,0%
Below model — historis zona ini sering jadi entry akumulasi pre-bull.
14LTH / STH SUPPLY
Distribusi by holding age
Long-term holders14,72M BTC
Short-term holders5,12M BTC
LTH 30D trend▲ Akumulasi
Coin Days DestroyedLow — strong hands
LTH (>155 hari) tetap akumulasi meski drawdown — structural conviction.
15MVRV RATIO
Market / Realized Value
2,12×
FAIR VALUE
Range: bottom <1, top >3,7. Saat ini di zona netral — bukan ekstrem profit, bukan distress.
16NUPL
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
0,46
BELIEF
Capitulation → Hope → Belief ← here → Optimism → Euphoria. Belum overheated.
17REALIZED CAP
Cost basis aggregate
$712B
Realized price ≈ $35.840
Market cap $1,51T vs realized $712B. Investor agregat duduk di +112% unrealized.
18BTC DOMINANCE
vs Total Crypto Market Cap
54,2%
BTC SEASON
Range: bull 55-70%, alt-season <45%. Capital flight ke quality asset.
19PI CYCLE TOP
Top Signal Distance
62,4%
FAR FROM TOP
20PUELL MULTIPLE
Miner Revenue Ratio
0,68
ACCUMULATION
21RESERVE RISK
Risk Index
0,0028
FAVORABLE
22MVRV Z-SCORE
Z-Score Current
1,82
MID-RANGE
23BTC ↔ GOLD RATIO
1 BTC = ounces Gold
16,18oz
Peak: 36 oz (Nov 2021)
Low: 5,2 oz (Jul 2022)
BTC undervalued vs gold reserve thesis
Low: 5,2 oz (Jul 2022)
BTC undervalued vs gold reserve thesis
24% OF GOLD MARKET CAP
BTC % Gold Market Cap
10,8%
target tier
Gold MC$14T
BTC MC$1,51T
Parity~$700K
25LIGHTNING NETWORK
CHANNEL CAPACITY5.214 BTC
≈ USD VALUE$398M
PUBLIC NODES15.842
PUBLIC CHANNELS52.140
NODES 30D▲ +2,8%
CAPACITY 30D▲ +1,4%
26CORPORATE HOLDINGS
Strategy Inc MSTR252.4001,20%
Marathon Digital MARA47.5000,23%
Tesla TSLA11.5000,05%
Coinbase COIN9.4800,05%
Block Inc SQ8.2000,04%
172 perusahaan publik · ~5,6% supply.
$KALKULATOR INVESTASI BITCOIN
Andai dulu berinvestasi
—
Proyeksi (hipotetis)
—
⚠ Memakai harga BTC live dari terminal. Hasil masa lalu TIDAK menjamin masa depan; angka proyeksi murni hipotetis (bukan prediksi). Bukan nasihat keuangan — Bitcoin sangat fluktuatif, Anda bisa kehilangan modal.
27CAKRA AI · CONVERSATION INTERFACE
Halo! Saya CAKRA AI. Tanyakan apa saja soal Bitcoin — cara kerjanya, siklus halving, arti data on-chain, makro, atau bagaimana mulai belajar berinvestasi dengan aman. Jawaban bersifat edukasi.
⚠ Edukasi, bukan nasihat keuangan. Bitcoin sangat fluktuatif & berisiko tinggi — Anda bisa kehilangan modal. Lakukan riset sendiri (DYOR).